The pattern of iron ore oversupply in 2018 is difficult to change Open years, iron ore futures volatility fell analysts believe that the spot market is gradually entering clinch a deal the window period, futures recommend careful operation is given priority to, in 2018 iron ore market as a whole is still difficult to get rid of supply pattern of production decline stage price support as of December 2017, the domestic ore production 1 - December up to 1.321549 billion tons, compared to the same period last year increased by 1.9%Compared with the production of raw ore in 2016, the increase was most obvious in January and march of 2017, while the output of raw ore in November and December was lower than that in 2016, said wang junwei, an analyst with zhuchuang informationDomestic ore market prices up slightly in the first half, part of the mine production will increase, the domestic mining starts to modestly, in addition, the hong kong-listed downstream prices continue to recover, the downstream steel mills profit space is improved, the high profits, crude steel production increased, also rose, ascension will drive the demand for iron ore in November and December year-on-year decline in output is mainly affected by 2 + 26 city heating season limit production policy, domestic ore starts fell Jun-wei wang saidFrom imports, through to the iron ore imports monthly data monitoring, can be found, in January 2017 - December the certificate number 865.4343 million tons, down 35.7% year on year, the amount is $60.047 billion, down 21% year on year short-term operation caution is advisable According to zhuo and data monitoring information, as of December 27, 2017, shipped 798 million tons of iron ore in Australia, increased by 3.3%, compared to the same week all shipments in 15.36 million tonsAt the same time, according to the latest figures, the Brazilian shipments of 353 million tons, 5.2% increase over the previous year, all the shipments of 6.792 million tons As can be seen from the data, while iron ore prices have rebounded, but Australian shipments increment is not obvious Is mainly affected by the factors such as hurricane weather and accidents in mines, the yield significantly lower part of the high quality resources Jun-wei wang explains, Brazil by the domestic economic recovery, partially into the domestic iron ore resources, less incrementLooking ahead to 2018, jun-wei wang is expected, the big four shipments will obviously increase mine high quality resources, four major mine production is expected to increase 45 million tons, domestic ore market, the environmental supervision is still a sharp sword, and mine starts to boost, undressed ore difficult to increase production, more than a slight drop in present situation, the downstream demand, is expected in 2018 the global output of 1.175 billion tons of pig iron, year-on-year growth rate of 0.3%, a corresponding demand for 1.88 billion tons of iron ore, iron ore supply is still oversupply situation, the expected annual iron ore price near $65 in 2018In the short term, founder medium-term futures analyst Shang Bing hua said, the current domestic iron ore spot prices fell slightly, piece of ore is relatively strong, only a week to go to the Spring Festival, steel mills for iron ore inventories absolute and relative inventory are close to the highs of last year, hebei, shandong province, both their production will continue to 3 months, so the first inventories continue to increase the space is limited, although a few mills still have purchase intention but has little effect on the market, spot gradually into the first clinch a deal the window period, recommended investors cautious operation, pay attention to the position.
2018 10/20